Social and Legal Studios

Abstract

Solving the problems facing the Ukrainian economy at the present stage requires the creation of conditions for stable economic growth. For this purpose, an analysis of the factors of economic growth and economic and mathematical modeling of the forecast variants of the Ukrainian economy development are necessary. At the same time, the scientific literature has not sufficiently studied the problem and developed a methodology for predicting the national income of Ukraine, depending on macroeconomic costs. The purpose of the article is to develop the methodology for forecasting Ukraine’s national income on the basis of material, social and intellectual costs. In this article we construct the multiple regression equations that allow us to model the time evolution of macroeconomic indicators to predict the dynamics of Ukraine’s national income, material, social and intellectual costs. The main factors of influence, namely material, social and intellectual costs on the national income of the country are analyzed. Linear pairs and multiple regression equations for the dependence of material, social and intellectual costs on the Ukraine’s national income are constructed. The predictable interval estimates of these indicators are calculated until 2019. All calculations were made using the “StatGraphics Plus Professional 5.0” application package. The econometric modeling method of the main macroeconomic indicators on the basis of multiple regression is also proposed. It has been studied that education and science are becoming the main branches of production of intellectual capital and income in the national economy. The authors consider the socialization and intellectualization as key factors of the national economy development, which objectively serves as a determinant of the transition to the globalization of the information society. According to the current economic situation in Ukraine, to increase the national income, it is advisable to increase intellectual costs, that is, to make significant investments in education, science, innovative activity of enterprises

Keywords: national economy, national income, econometric modeling, multiple regression

Suggested citation